Researcher verification pass
Everything loaded for the demo is provisional — real and source-confirmed, but not verified by you. The simulation, sensitivity, and global views all ride on this data. Work through it here: check each claim against its source and Confirm (promotes it to verified) or Reject (deletes it). Confirm relationships whose direction/strength you endorse, or delete them.
Provisional claims
Unconfirmed relationships
LLM-grounded structural hypotheses. In soft-joint mode these shift probabilities and in hard mode they prune combinations, so confirm only the direction/strength you actually endorse.
Incoming market data (Polymarket + Manifold · unmapped · provisional)
Live prediction-market prices from the Polymarket and Manifold public APIs, read as implied probabilities and stored timestamped + provenance-complete. Each card is labelled with its source. They are UNMAPPED — not connected to any scenario and not feeding the model — until you approve a crosswalk mapping. Most are proxies at best; that's exactly why the mapping is a human decision, not an automatic one.
Crosswalk mappings (market → scenario)
Approved mappings connecting a market's whole time series to a scenario — this is what lets an ingested market appear on the Timeline and feed the as-of replay. Each records a mapping type (proxy/partial/direct/related), a direction, and a required rationale. Deleting one disconnects that market from the model.